The Government of the Russian Federation proposes to gradually raise the retirement age in the country to 65 for men and 63 for women from 2019. This was announced by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on June 14 at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers. While this is only a proposal, the bill was sent to the State Duma for consideration.

According to the draft law, they also want to raise the retirement age for the so-called "early workers": teachers, health workers, workers in creative professions, as well as for residents of the Far North. And social pensions, which are due to those who, during their service, have not worked out the length of service necessary for an insurance pension, are planned to be paid to men from the age of 70, and to women from 68.

What does "step by step" mean?

This means that every year the retirement age will increase by six months. For men, it will reach the planned bar in 2028, after 10 years, for women - in 2034, after 16 years. It is planned to launch this process in 2019, and the first to be affected by it will be men born in 1959 and women born in 1964. That is, men born in 1959. and women born in 1964 will be able to retire in 2020 when they will be 61 and 56 respectively. Next, men born in 1960 will wait until they retire in 2022, as will women born in 1965. They will be 62 years old and 57 years old respectively. And so on up to 2028 and 2034.

And what about early and beneficiaries?

The requirements for their length of service will remain unchanged, i.e. from 15 to 30 years, depending on the category of the beneficiary. But the age of their retirement will be calculated in the same way as that of other pensioners, and will increase at the same pace.

For those who worked in special climatic conditions, for example, in the regions of the Far North, the retirement period will also gradually increase: for men it will begin at 60 years old, and for women at 58 years old.

For Russians who are eligible to receive early retirement in connection with work in difficult conditions (miners, workers in the ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, railway workers, etc.), the timing of the start of payments will not change. The timing of the start of payments will also not change for citizens with social benefits: women who have given birth to and are raising a disabled child up to eight years old, women with five or more children, visually impaired people of the first group, one of the parents or guardians of disabled children from childhood who were injured in an accident in Chernobyl, etc.

What else will change?

It is assumed that workers with long service (40 years for women and 45 for men) will be able to retire two years earlier.

In addition, the term for assigning social old-age pensions (they are accrued to people who have not worked the length of service necessary for an insurance pension) will also gradually change. After the completion of the reform, it will be 68 years for women (now 60) and 70 years for men (now 65).

For those who are already retired or have reached retirement age, will something change?

No, those who are already retired (and born in 1958 (men) and 1963 (women) or earlier) can be calm: the reform does not apply to them. They will continue to receive everything due payments, while due to the proposed changes, their pensions will increase, according to Dmitry Medvedev, for 1 thousand rubles a year.

Why is all this necessary?

The prime minister explained that the reform would provide additional taxpayer funds that would be used to increase pensions above the inflation rate. Medvedev instructed Rostrud to ensure that older people have no obstacles to labor activity and for hiring.

Russian United Russia deputy Sergei Zheleznyak left the post of deputy party secretary, explaining this step as disagreement with the pension reform. According to RBC sources, Zheleznyak, who until recently served as deputy secretary of United Russia, explained that he opposed the bill to increase retirement age.

Oleg Shein: pension reform is Gaidarism - Pension reform news

As Zheleznyak noted on his Facebook, he wrote his resignation letter on July 17. According to him, he is fundamentally against a mandatory increase in the retirement age, therefore he cannot support such an initiative. Zheleznyak also called a mandatory increase in the retirement age "an economically inefficient, socially unacceptable" idea.

Previously, he criticized this concept, even being the coordinator of the party's social platform in the last convocation of the State Duma. He added that he decided not to support the bill raising the retirement age, and therefore the decision to step down from leadership positions in the party is logical. It is the most reasonable "in the context of the policy adopted by the Presidium of the General Council of the party on a consolidated vote for this bill."

"I could not do otherwise," Zheleznyak stressed. As a result, on October 11, the Presidium of the General Council of United Russia dismissed Zheleznyak from the post of Deputy Secretary of the General Council of the Party and Chairman of the Commission of the Presidium of the General Council of the Party on International Affairs.

Recall that on July 19, when the bill on raising the retirement age was considered in the first reading, the deputy went on sick leave. Tellingly, an amazing screenshot of a message was recently published on the Vyborny telegram channel, where someone requires "respected colleagues" to send posts to in social networks in support of pension reform. And also, which is typical, the posts of those party members who were "against".

By the way, at the regional level, several deputies also left the party with the wording “I can’t support this reform.” Earlier, only ex-Prosecutor of Crimea Natalya Poklonskaya voted against this initiative of the authorities. She was the only one of 329 United Russia deputies who did not approve the government bill to raise the retirement age.

Some of the deputies who spoke out against the reform later voted for it. For example, Vyacheslav Lysakov, head of the Freedom of Choice social movement, criticized the authors of the pension reform, noting that "boys" with the eyes of ruthless and cold-blooded social killers are our terrible future. "This did not stop him on July 19, voted "for" the bill.

Indeed, the United Russia party is discussing the bill across the country, calling it "the improvement of the pension system" and even a "pension maneuver." But the same Poklonskaya said that the draft law contains innovations that she is not ready to support, "therefore, I am preparing amendments for the second reading and, I hope, they will be adopted and taken into account."

It should be noted that according to media reports, Russians' trust in President Vladimir Putin has collapsed by 20 percentage points, sociologists at the Levada Center believe. This figure fell to 39% by September 2018. At the same time, similar processes are observed in the definition of trust in state and public institutions. The President has fully earned the trust of 58% of respondents, leaving behind the trust in the army (66%).

Levada Center Director Lev Gudkov recalled that over the past four years, real incomes of citizens have fallen by 11-13%, so when the authorities announced the pension reform, this turned out to be the last straw. It seems to Russians that the state is trying to solve its problems at the expense of the population.

Thus, the drop in the government's rating is actually connected with the announcement of the pension reform: in May, 76% trusted Putin, in July - 61%. This figure later dropped to 36.8% (end of September 2018) and will fall further, experts predict.

The government of the Russian Federation is currently actively pursuing pension reform. Now the old-age pension consists of its insurance part and the funded part. Introduced concepts such as individual pension coefficients (pension points), a fixed payment to the insurance pension, increasing coefficients.

At the same time, a number of laws have been passed that increase the requirements for minimum work experience and the required number of pension points for receiving a pension.

pension reform - this is a purposeful policy of the state, associated with a change in the current legislation, aimed at changing the conditions of pension provision.

An innovation was the increase in the retirement age for retirement from 2019.

So, as a general rule, an old-age pension is assigned and paid to insured persons upon reaching the age:

• 65 years for men,
• 60 years - for women.

New pension legislation provides that in order to receive a pension, the following mandatory conditions are also necessary:

1. the presence of a minimum insurance period (the pension reform provides for an annual increase in the minimum length of service from 5 years in 2015 to 15 years by 2024);
2. the value of pension points (IPK) (Since 2015, the penalty is assigned if there are pension points of at least 6.6, with a subsequent annual increase by 2.4 to 30 points by 2025).

The law proposes to set the retirement age for men - 65 years, for women - 63 years.

After the Government of the Russian Federation proposed to raise the retirement age, deputies of the Just Russia party submitted a draft law to the State Duma of the Russian Federation to abolish pension points and maintain the retirement age limit of 60 years for men and 55 years for women. The size of the pension in the draft law depends only on the length of service and wages received. You can read more about the draft law at the link.

The opinion of the President of Russia Putin V.V. about raising the retirement age

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, in an interview until 2018, has repeatedly stated that the issue of raising the retirement age is not being considered.

After considering the bill on raising the retirement age in the first reading, Putin V.V. August 29, 2018 in a televised address appealed to the citizens of the Russian Federation and expressed his opinion.

Putin V.V. stated that raising the retirement age is a necessary measure.

The President of the Russian Federation proposed a number of measures that would make it possible to soften the decisions made as much as possible.

The following are excerpts from an interview with Vladimir Vladimirovich, full text published on the website of the President of the Russian Federation.

1. The retirement age for women should not increase more than for men. Therefore, I consider it necessary to reduce the increase in the retirement age for women proposed by the bill from 8 to 5 years.

Thus, women will be able to retire at the age of 60.

Further. Provide for the right of early retirement for mothers with many children. That is, if a woman has three children, then she will be able to retire for three years. ahead of time. If there are four children, four years earlier. And for women who have five or more children, everything should remain as it is now, they will be able to retire at 50 years old.

2. The retirement age is supposed to be increased gradually. So that people can adapt to a new life situation, build their plans. In this regard, I propose for citizens who were to retire under the old legislation in the next two years, to establish a special benefit - the right to draw up a pension six months earlier than the new retirement age.

For example, a person who, according to the new retirement age, will have to retire in January 2020, will be able to do this as early as July 2019.

3. What worries and even, I would say, scares people of pre-retirement age? They are afraid to face the risk of losing their jobs. With the fact that they can remain without a pension and without a salary. It's really hard to find a job after 50.

In this regard, we must provide additional guarantees that will protect the interests of older citizens in the labor market. Therefore, on transition period I propose to consider the pre-retirement age as five years before the retirement date. I repeat, a whole package of measures is needed here. Thus, I consider it necessary to establish administrative and even criminal liability for employers for dismissing workers of pre-retirement age, as well as for refusing to hire citizens because of their age.

I instruct the Government to approve a special advanced training program for citizens of pre-retirement age. It should start working as soon as possible and be financed from the federal budget.

And if a person of pre-retirement age decided to quit on his own, voluntarily and has not yet found a new job, then in this case we must strengthen him social guarantees. In this regard, it is proposed to more than double the maximum amount of unemployment benefits for citizens of pre-retirement age - from 4,900 rubles, as it is now, to 11,280 rubles from January 1, 2019 - and set the period of such payment to one year.

And, finally, it is also necessary to consolidate the obligation of the employer to annually provide employees of pre-retirement age two days for free medical examination with pay.

4. When making changes, you cannot act according to a template. We have already provided for the preservation of benefits for miners, workers in hot shops, chemical plants, Chernobyl victims, and a number of other categories.

We must also support the villagers. It has already been repeatedly discussed and even decided on the need for a 25 percent increase in the fixed payment of the insurance pension for non-working pensioners living in the countryside who have at least 30 years of experience in agriculture. But the entry into force of this decision was delayed. I propose to start these payments as early as January 1, 2019.

5. Those who started working early should be able to retire not only in terms of age, but also taking into account the length of service they have earned.

Now the bill establishes that the length of service giving the right to early exit retirement age is 40 for women and 45 for men. I propose to reduce by three years the length of service that gives the right to early retirement: for women up to 37 years, and for men up to 42.

Yes, we have traditionally provided these benefits only with retirement. But in this case, when changes are coming to the pension system, and people were counting on these benefits, we are obliged to make an exception for them, to provide benefits not in connection with retirement, but upon reaching the appropriate age. That is, as before, women will be able to use the benefits when they reach 55 years old and men from 60 years old. Thus, even before retirement, they will no longer pay tax on their house, apartment, garden plot.

In conclusion, the President of the Russian Federation noted that, as is known, many experts still believe that we have been too long in resolving the issues that are being discussed today. I do not think so. We just weren't ready for it before. But we really can't wait any longer. This would be irresponsible and could lead to grave consequences in the economy and the social sphere, most in a negative way affect the destinies of millions of people, because, now it is already clear, the state will have to do this sooner or later. But the later, the tougher these decisions will be. Without any transition period, without maintaining a number of benefits and those mitigating mechanisms that we can use today.

Thus, raising the retirement age in Russia is inevitable. And, as changes in legislation show, this will happen as early as 2019.

More details about retirement age in Russia can be read in the article at the link.

Strategy for the development of pension policy proposed by Kudrin

The Center for Strategic Research, led by Alexei Kudrin, prepared a plan for Vladimir Putin to create a sustainable pension system, the goal of which is to increase payments without increasing spending from the budget.

Important. The essence of Kudrin's plan is to ensure the growth of pensions relative to the subsistence minimum by reducing the number of people receiving these payments. It is proposed to raise the retirement age to 63 for women and to 65 for men!

In addition to raising the retirement age, it is also proposed to tighten the conditions for receiving a pension:

1. The minimum length of service for accruing an insurance pension (which is now being increased annually to 15 years by 2024) should be further increased to 20 years.
2. The strategy proposes to increase the minimum number of pension points (which is also being raised to 30 by 2025) to 52.
3. The social pension, which is received by those who have not earned on the insurance, is proposed to be assigned upon reaching the age of 68.

At the same time, it is planned to tighten the conditions for the appointment of early pensions: for example, the minimum length of service required for her with doctors and teachers will be increased to 35 years (at present, doctors have the right to retire early after working 25 years). Read about who has the right to retire early in the article at the link.

According to the calculations of the CSR, this will increase the ratio of the insurance pension to living wage and reduce the transfer from the budget to finance pensions.

What to expect from pension reform in 2019-2020

Main positive moment As a result of the reform and the increase in the retirement age, there is an annual indexation and an increase in the size of the pension by an average of 1 thousand rubles. As a result, it is expected that the average pension will rise to 20,000 rubles.

In addition to raising the retirement age, the issue of forming the funded part of the pension also remains relevant.

Recall, transfer of funds to funded part pensions in Russia has been frozen since 2014.

The funded part of the pension in Russia will definitely not be formed in the next three years, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets confirmed, not ruling out its complete abolition.

It should be noted that the budget of the Pension Fund of Russia for 2018-2020 is based on the fact that the entire volume of the insurance premium rate will be directed to the insurance part of pensions. The formation of pension savings in the budget in 2019-2020 is not provided.

Currently, the Government of the Russian Federation is developing the concept of an individual pension capital system, which should replace the mandatory formation of pension savings. According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev, the new system will start working from 2020.

Now citizens who have not yet decided on the method of forming pension savings under the new rules will have to finally decide whether they remain in the state insurance system or still begin to save additionally for a pension. Based on their decision pension savings will either be transferred to the selected non-state pension fund, or they will be converted into points and they will become part of the regular insurance pension.

Thus, it is assumed that Pension Fund Russia will lose the functions of the insurer for the funded part of the pension.

Participation in the new system will be voluntary, but entry into it will occur by default. That is, a person will need to write a statement if he does not want to participate in it, and not vice versa. This is done to make people more intelligently approach the savings for future retirement.

Savings will be deducted from their salary by default unless they file a waiver.

Each person who wants to increase his individual pension capital will be able to deduct any percentage of his salary into the system at his own discretion. For this, he will receive tax benefits. For deductions within six percent of the salary, he will receive a classic tax deduction, i.е. You don't have to pay income tax on this money.

It is assumed that if a person saved for retirement, but fell into a difficult life situation, for example, became seriously ill, received a disability of the first or second group, lost a close relative, he will be allowed to withdraw this money from the pension system and spend it on more urgent needs, such as treatment.

Prepared by "Personal rights.ru"

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev revealed the details of the future pension reform. Men will retire five years later, women eight years later. This will make it possible to raise pensions by an average of 1,000 rubles a year instead of the current indexation at the level of 400-500 rubles a year. What changes await pensioners and privileged categories of citizens?

At a government meeting, a draft law on changing the pension system is being considered. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev revealed the parameters of the future pension reform. According to him, Russia has created the necessary conditions for raising the retirement age, so system changes are long overdue.

Thus, the retirement age for men will increase from 60 to 65 by 2028. For women, the retirement age will rise from 55 to 63 by 2034. Thus, men will retire five years later and women eight years later than now.

“We have been preparing for a long time to increase the retirement age and have come to this only now, also because conditions have been created for increasing life expectancy under the 80+ program,” Medvedev said.

What is the meaning of pension reform?

The main goal of the pension reform is not to increase the retirement age itself, which, due to the changed socio-economic realities, was only a matter of time. The result of the reform will be higher growth rates of the pensions themselves - higher than inflation.

In the last three years (2016–2018), pensions have grown by an average of 400–500 rubles a year. While an increase in the retirement age will make it possible to index pensions by almost 1,000 rubles a year, Dmitry Medvedev said.

Low pensions are more painful than raising the age. At the same time, the authorities will continue to invest in human capital so that people in adulthood can live a quality and successful life.

The government guarantees

The government proposes to ratify the International Labor Organization's Social Security Minimum Standards Convention No. 102. What is important in this convention? Firstly, it states that the average pension cannot be less than 40% of average earnings, which means that the Russian government is ready to guarantee this figure. Secondly, the convention guarantees that the state will not raise the retirement age beyond 65 years. If this is ever needed, then it will be impossible to do this without substantiating the working capacity of people. Thus, the new level of the retirement age is set for decades.

There is no reasonable alternative, the reform is overdue

Opportunities to increase the size of pensions are limited due to a sharp drop in the number of working Russians who pay contributions to the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation. If 49 years ago (in 1970) there were 3.7 people of working age per pensioner, then in 2019 there will be only 2 able-bodied people. If nothing is done, then the further, the greater the burden on workers will be: every year the number of working citizens is reduced by 400 thousand people, and the number of people retiring is 1.5-1.6 million people.

Thus, an alternative to raising the retirement age could only be an increase in insurance payments for currently working citizens. And this would lead to negative consequences for the entire economy. The growth of insurance payments in the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation would mean the departure of many companies and enterprises into the gray zone and a decrease in wages for Russians. Further down the chain, this would slow down consumer spending and production growth in the country, and therefore, in general, would slow down the already low growth rates of the Russian economy. Actually, world experience shows that no one has been able to come up with a reasonable alternative to raising the retirement age.

World experience

The current increase in the retirement age is long overdue. The Russian authorities delayed this unpopular step as best they could, but it is impossible to do this indefinitely. Almost all countries in the world have long raised the retirement age - these are the realities of improving socio-economic conditions. The countries of the CIS and Eastern Europe, which are closest to Russia, were much less ceremonious and took such a step a long time ago. The exceptions were Russia and Uzbekistan. So, at 65, men retire in Moldova and Azerbaijan, and women at 63 in Armenia and soon in Kazakhstan (transitional period). In Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the retirement age for both men and women will be raised equally to 65 by 2025-2027. And in Germany, Spain and Italy, already in the 2020s, they will retire at 67 years old, and also representatives of both sexes.

Current pensioners will not be affected by the change. The reform will begin on January 1, 2019. The authorities will not rush. The transitional period will be 10 years for men and 16 years for women. It is planned to increase the retirement age year by year. For those who were going to retire in the coming years, there will be special rules. For example, men born in 1959 and women born in 1964 will be able to retire at 61 and 56 respectively, that is, in 2020. Men born in 1960 and women born in 1965 will be able to retire at the age of 62 and 57 respectively (in 2022). As a result, for men, the reform will end in 2028. Starting this year, men born in 1963 at the age of 65 will have the right to retire. For women, the change will last until 2034, when those born in 1971 will retire at age 63. Accordingly, men born after 1963 and women born after 1971 will be able to retire at 65 and 63.

Life expectancy has risen

The current retirement age was set back in the 1930s, when the average life expectancy was only 40 years. It is clear that since then working conditions have in most cases improved, and the level of social and economic life has risen. All this naturally led to an increase in life expectancy, and hence the level of working capacity. If in 2000 men in Russia lived an average of 59 years, then in 2017 - already 67.5 years, and by 2024, according to the forecast of Rosstat, their life expectancy will increase to 72.3 years. By the time the retirement age for men reaches 65, that is, in 2028, they will live an average of 75.1 years.

Women live longer than men. Already in 2000, their life expectancy was 72.26 years, in 2017 it increased to 77.64 years and, according to the forecast, will increase to 85.28 years by 2034, when the retirement age for women will be 63 years.

Life expectancy in Russia as a whole is 73.5 years in 2018 and will continue to grow. By 2030, Russians will live an average of 80.1 years. Against the backdrop of a declining birth rate in the country, with which the authorities have long been fighting in all sorts of ways (this and maternal capital, and child benefits, and educational and medical services), the increase in life expectancy is becoming an important factor in the overdue increase in the retirement age.

Why are the retirement ages of men and women not equalized?

Many countries do establish an equal retirement age regardless of gender. However, the Russian authorities decided to maintain differentiation, taking into account that a woman bears a great burden in the development of society, including in the care and upbringing of children. After all, women are responsible not only for the appearance of their own children as new members of society and their formation, but, as a rule, also for the upbringing of their grandchildren. Even polls have shown that many in Russia believe that women should be rewarded for the double burden they bear in the family and in the labor market with the possibility of early retirement. In addition, one should not deprive the grandchildren of their grandmothers, the Russians believe. The Russian authorities are thereby maintaining a course towards traditional family values, where there is no place for same-sex marriages, and the differences between a woman and a man are not erased.

Reform will also affect "beneficiaries"

For citizens with long experience additional benefit: They will be able to retire two years early. We are talking about women with more than 40 years of experience and men with more than 45 years of experience.

For those who work for Far North and in equivalent areas, the retirement age is raised from 55 to 60 for men and from 50 to 58 for women. The argument in favor of this decision was the increase in life expectancy in many northern regions. Now in Russia 2.9 million people receive early pensions on this basis.

For teachers, doctors and creative workers, the institution of early pensions will also continue to work on the basis of a special length of service, which remains at the level of 15–30 years, depending on the specific category of the beneficiary. However, for them, the retirement age is increased to 63/65 years. new age retirement is calculated on the basis of the date of development of the special length of service and the acquisition of the right to early retirement. There are now 1.1 million retired teachers and about 0.7 thousand pensioners from among the former medical workers in the country.

The increase in the retirement age for state civil servants to the national level, which has already begun, will continue.

Finally, citizens who did not work at all or did not earn enough work experience to receive an insurance pension will be able to receive social pension- from 68 years old for women and from 70 years old - for men. There are few such people in the country today - 42 thousand people.

Meanwhile, a number of categories of citizens remain who will not be affected by the increase in the retirement age. First, as before, Russians who work in hazardous industries and in hot shops can still count on early retirement. These are, for example, miners, metallurgists, railway workers. There are 1.8 million such pensioners in the country today. Secondly, those with many children can count on early retirement, for example, women who have given birth to five or more children or who have given birth and raised a disabled child up to 8 years old, etc.

Competition in the labor market

Many are concerned that people over the age of 50 and young people are having a hard time finding work. However, direct competition between these categories is actually negligible. Because young people, as a rule, work in more modern industries - IT, telecommunications, while older people work in less developing sectors of the economy. At the same time, most current pensioners continue to work for another five years after reaching retirement age. Employers appreciate their many years of professional experience. Given the low unemployment rate in the country (4.9% of the able-bodied population), the country, on the contrary, lacks workers. The pension reform enables the labor market to use internal sources to solve the problem of the shortage of the able-bodied population.

The government's project to raise the retirement age has drawn criticism not only in society, but also in the professional and business environment. Participants of the Russian tripartite commission(RTC) for the regulation of social and labor relations, which includes representatives of the government, business and trade unions, on June 16, they could not reach a consensus on the draft Cabinet.

Trade unions opposed the bill on pension reform in its current wording. The head of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia (FNPR), Mikhail Shmakov, proposed raising the retirement age for women not by eight years, as the government wants, but by five, to 60 years.

Shmakov added that the trade unions "in general are against this bill, because it does not take into account many aspects, there is no clear rationale for what this will give to every pensioner." He stressed that the pension issue needs to be addressed in a comprehensive manner, and the proposed innovations will not make sense if wage and economy.

In turn, representatives of the business community were not so categorical, but they agreed to support the government's initiative only if they receive all the calculations and statistics that formed the basis of the pension reform project. From the point of view of business, it is necessary to intensify the reform of the institution of early pensions, taking into account the development of early non-state provision and the creation of a system of insurance of professional risks.

Recall that the government approved a bill on a phased increase in the country's retirement age to 65 for men and 63 for women on June 14, the opening day of the World Cup in Russia. The current retirement age for men and women in Russia is 60 and 55 respectively. According to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the bill "proposes to introduce a fairly long transition period - starting from 2019, in order to step by step achieve retirement at 65 for men in 2028 and at 63 for women in 2034."

After approval by the Cabinet of Ministers, the bill will be submitted to the State Duma, most likely in July. There, the government's initiative also caused a lot of criticism. Thus, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation proposed to introduce a moratorium on raising the retirement age until 2030 and are even ready to submit this issue to an all-Russian referendum.

“The law will not lead to an increase in pensions, as its drafters claim. This year's additional budget revenue is 1 trillion 600 billion rubles. Of these funds, they give the economy, agriculture, science - a little more than 60 billion, and zero to pensioners. Can anyone really believe that people are being turned out of their pockets for their own good?!" State Duma deputy Oleg Smolin was indignant at a press conference on the issue of pension reform, and Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov called the government's plans "anti-constitutional, unreasonable and economically uncalculated" .

Nevertheless, past experience shows that despite the outrage, the majority in the State Duma supports almost all unpopular government initiatives. So it was with the monetization of benefits, the introduction of the Unified State Examination, the purchase and sale of land and other controversial issues.

Although raising the retirement age may cause even more resonance in society than the aforementioned topics. According to all surveys, for example, the FOM survey, only 6% of Russians support raising the retirement age for women, and 4% for men. According to the Romir holding, only 8% of Russians approve of the reforms.

On the one hand, the authorities seem to be counting on the period of holidays and the World Cup, when public attention is diverted from pressing problems. On the other hand, such steps at the very beginning of the work of the Cabinet of Ministers can deal a serious blow to his rating and rebound on the president, who during the “straight line” said that pension reform should be approached very carefully. Can the government listen to criticism from all sides, delay or at least correct the pension reform?

Taking into account the fact that the government announced one of the toughest options for pension reform, I think this was done specifically in order to win back later and make concessions, - says Alexander Shatilov, Dean of the Faculty of Sociology and Political Science of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation . - Faced with the dissatisfaction of society, trade unions and even business, they will somewhat correct this maximally rigid scheme.

Let me remind you that initially this model was proposed to be made much smoother and more accurate. I do not rule out that the reform will be corrected at the suggestion of the President, who will try to intervene in this situation. It is clear that trade unions will be against raising the retirement age, but I do not think that they will go "together" with the country's leadership. Their task is to knock out the maximum concessions and soften the situation, and not to achieve the abolition of the pension reform as such.

Moreover, there are certain grounds for the pension reform related to the shortage of labor personnel, especially in production. There is also a significant burden on pension system. Another issue is that the pension reform should have been carried out in a much softer and more accurate form. Especially taking into account the fact that only recently Russian society voted for the president, but does not receive any bonuses for this, but receives only social blows and upheavals. It seems to me that it was worthwhile to start this reform a little later and make it softer, and not cut off from the shoulder.

- How will the pension reform affect the rating of the government and the president?

It will hit, first of all, the rating of the government and Dmitry Medvedev. To a lesser extent, this will affect the president's rating, because the opinion in Russian society is firmly established that the president is good, and the boyars are bad. But his trust rating may also go down.

Although now the increase in the retirement age in the minds of Russians will be partly offset by subjective factors. This is the World Cup, which distracts from problems. This is also the summer period, which is traditionally considered a period of relaxation and indifference of society. Another point is that the majority of citizens who are subject to the reform are still of working age and do not really think about pensions.

Director General of the Institute of Regional Problems Dmitry Zhuravlev believes that even if the government corrects some points, it will not change the very principle of the law.

Perhaps they will indeed increase the retirement age for women not by eight, but by five years, so that women do not get offended, maybe they will delay the implementation of the reform until 2020. But the essence of this will not change. The whole logic of the reform boils down to the question of how full the Pension Fund is. Let's instead of paying pensions to a certain group of people, let's start taking contributions from them and thereby reduce the hole in the Pension Fund. That's all the government is interested in. And they do not think at all about where to put these working hands.

Where will 63-year-old women work, will new jobs be opened for them? But all this is secondary for the authorities, while the filling of the PFR is primary. And with occupancy, the situation is really difficult.

We have a solidarity pension system. We pay for those who worked before us, there are fewer young people, more pensioners, and as a result, there is not enough money. You can solve this problem the way they are doing now, or you can completely change the pension system. But the government did not dare to take this step. Maybe right, because who knows what they would have ended up with.

If we leave the solidarity system, there are only two options - either to subsidize the PFR, as the Soviet government did, or to raise the retirement age. It is possible, of course, to raise contributions to the Pension Fund, but the population will like it even less than the increase in the retirement age. The government does not want to subsidize the PFR, since they need a positive budget balance.

In a word, the principle will not change, the question is in the details. Now people will be indignant, and they will be told that the increase will not be from 2019, but from 2020. Then they will stop being indignant, and when 2020 comes, nothing can be changed, since all the laws will have already been adopted. In any case, the government will insist on its own, retreating in some details, and, perhaps, will not retreat.

- Will this lead to protests in society?

Of course, there will be outrage at the level of individuals. You can't walk past the concierge without her telling you everything she thinks about power. But I don't see any organized protest, demonstrations against raising the retirement age. A poor man does not arrange a revolution - he is looking for food. And he will go, rather, not to a demonstration, in the success of which he does not believe, but to look for a second job in order to reach this retirement age.

Moreover, this bill will not enter into force tomorrow. Unlike the monetization of benefits, people will not feel it immediately, but when they do, it will no longer be possible to cancel it.

- How will the adoption of this bill affect the rating and further activities of the government?

The rating of the government, of course, will fall sharply. Although there will be no mass protests, such a step will not add respect from the people. Because it hits the sickest. After all, they take it not from the rich, but from the conditional aunt Masha, who barely lived to see her retirement, and she is told that she needs to work more.

Perhaps the president's rating will also fall. But there is a certain political “fork” here. On the "direct line" the president actually said that he did not support raising the retirement age. And what happens now? On the other hand, there is a certain part of the population who really wants to believe in the old Russian scheme “the tsar is good, but the boyars are bad.”

As for how this reform will affect the government's future activities, I'm afraid that if the Cabinet of Ministers does not meet with tough social opposition, it will think up new reforms - how would they make the budget balance even more positive and at the same time take something away from the people. They judge by the reaction - if the people are silent, it means that they like everything.

Therefore, there is a danger that after the adoption of this reform, the government's social policy may become even tougher. And the saddest thing is that by taking money from people, the government really hits the economy. The Minister of Economic Development should have been yelling obscenities so that this reform would not be carried out, but he is silent, everything suits him. Therefore, in the future we can expect new "reforms" in the social sphere.